Bernard Lagat, unless he’s tripped or spiked, will run a mile in 3:56 Saturday at the Millrose Games in Manhattan. Fellow Olympian John Trautmann will run the same distance in 4:16 in Boston. Both will claim age-group world records in the process. Who sez? Me. But intensive coverage of both runners suggests I may be playing it safe. Today’s mail brought the March issue of Track & Field News, and the No. 1 item in its 2015 preview features a huge photo of Bernard winning the 2014 U.S. 5K title and the headline “How Much Life Is Left in Bernard Lagat’s Legs at 40?” John at 46 is featured in a wonderful RW profile, and the record he’s chasing is Brad Barton’s. And who is cheering him on? Brad Barton (via Facebook).

T&FN doesn’t cover masters track — unless it’s someone shooting for M40 WR.

Super letsrun.com preview of the Wanamaker Mile at Millrose focuses on kiddies Centrowitz and Willis. But it also profiles Bernard:

Lagat has won this race eight times, but none would be more impressive than a potential #9. Lagat is now primarily a 3k/5k runner, and while he can still close with the best of them over those distances (he almost defeated Dejen Gebremeskel in the 3k in Boston last week), it’s hard to envision him having a 3:51/3:52 mile in his legs at age 40. He hasn’t broken 3:54 since 2011 and hasn’t run a race shorter than 2000 meters in over two years.

Of course, like Cheserek, it’s become foolish to count out Bernard Lagat. This is a man who came within .28 seconds of World Indoor gold at age 39 and ran an American-record 4:54.74 for 2k at this meet last year — a mark the Purdy running calculator equates to 3:51.00 for a mile. Lagat said in Boston he’d like this race to go fast, but a slightly slower pace may benefit him if he wants the win. That would better allow him to use his tactical prowess rather than making the race a test of brute speed. Even if he doesn’t win, Lagat will be happy if he can take down Millrose king Eamonn Coghlan‘s 3:58.15 masters world record from 1994.

Yes, Lagat has won eight of these but a 40-year-old isn’t winning this race. End of story.

The Runner’s World story said:

He could put the masters marks out of reach for many years to come. “That will be good. I’ll raise the bar,” he says. “But somebody will do it again in the future. That is the trend now. People are not saying, ‘I’m 35 or 36 and I should retire.’ They are looking at like, ‘If I’m still strong and I’m still disciplined and I have that focus, I should keep going.’”

On top of that, Lagat has had the same shoe sponsor, Nike, since 2002. As [Coach] Li points out, he’s never had to “worry about a job.”

And a RunBlogRun interview with Bernard was revelatory:

RBR, #4. You’re good friends with Eamonn Coghlan too, right, whose mile record you’ll be going after at Millrose?

Bernard Lagat: Yeah, Eamonn Coghlan is my friend, and I’ve also been tweeting with Anthony Whiteman [over-40 1500m record holder] too, going, hey, I might look into getting those records, and he told me ‘go for it, buddy’.

Even Irish sites are smiling on Bernard:

Lagat will be in the Wanamaker for the 108th Millrose meet this Saturday, February 14, St. Valentine’s Day.

It’s unlikely that he will massacre the field. Indeed, he’s not expected to win his ninth title at all given his years.

But Coghlan’s number, also posted at the 40-years-of-age mark, is well within Lagat’s current capabilities.

“It’s a great field and Eamonn is coming to New York to see the race,” said Longford’s Ray Flynn, Coghlan’s middle distance contemporary, and Millrose meet director.

The Millrose race will be on TV and live-streamed on USATF.tv, BTW. John Trautmann’s race will be viewable on Web as well, but you’ll need a Flotrack subscription to see the Valentine Invitational at Boston University.

So what’s your guess on BL and JT final times Saturday?